The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, spanning from June 1 to November 30, is projected to be more active than usual, according to forecasts from both the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Colorado State University (CSU). NOAA predicts a 60% chance of an above-normal season, estimating 13 to 19 named storms, 6 to 10 hurricanes, and 3 to 5 major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher . CSU's forecast aligns with this outlook, anticipating 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.
Despite the official start of the season, no named storms have formed yet, marking the fourth consecutive year with a quiet beginning . Historically, the first named storm typically forms around June 20, so the absence of early activity doesn't necessarily indicate a less active season.
Several factors contribute to the anticipated increase in storm activity. Warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic provide more energy for storm development. Additionally, the current neutral phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) reduces wind shear in the Atlantic, allowing storms to form and strengthen more easily.
However, concerns have been raised about the nation's preparedness for the upcoming season. Over a dozen National Weather Service (NWS) offices along the hurricane-prone Gulf Coast and in Puerto Rico are critically understaffed, with some missing more than a third of required meteorologists . The National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami is also short by five specialists. These shortages stem from job cuts and a hiring freeze initiated under President Trump, leading to significant operational strain and concerns about the agency's ability to issue timely and localized forecasts.
In light of these forecasts and challenges, residents in hurricane-prone areas are urged to prepare early. This includes assembling emergency kits, securing property, and having evacuation plans in place. Staying informed through reliable sources and heeding official advisories will be crucial as the season progresses. While the early part of the season may appear calm, conditions can change rapidly, underscoring the importance of vigilance and preparedness.
As the 2025 hurricane season unfolds, the combination of favorable conditions for storm development and concerns about forecasting capabilities highlight the need for proactive measures to ensure safety and resilience in the face of potential natural disasters.
